FEED WHEAT

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UK demand still remains slack, with consumers not willing to extend forward cover at the current levels and are just looking to cover themselves spot as they require it.

Trade views on the EU planted area for 2009 are somewhere in the region of 2 - 3% down on the previous year – with UK plantings 3 – 7% lower depending on who you talk to. It is estimated that the EU grain area is somewhere around 58.5 million hectares, compared with the 59 million-plus hectares from last season.

SovEcon expects Russian grain area to be sown with winter grains for 2009 harvests, to exceed 17 million hectares, up 0.8 million ha from last year, with winter sowing pretty much completed.

French analyst Strategie Grains raised its outlook for the European Union's 2008 soft wheat crop for the sixth month in a row, adding 600,000 tonnes to 140.1 million.

The latest estimate, which reflects higher official estimates in Spain and the UK, is 25 percent above the 2007 crop of 111.8 million tonnes.

Ukraine has exported 9.3 million tonnes of grain so far in the 2008/09 season; traders report that 2008/09 grain exports were likely to rise to up to 23 million tonnes from about 4 million in 2007/08.

Spain has taken a lot from Ukraine this year, with Spain traditionally the most important export market for British wheat.

Harvest is widely underway in Australia and Argentina; early estimates for Australia are somewhat lower than first expected. The Grains Council of Australia are reporting a possible crop of only 18 million tonnes for (2008) wheat down again on trade estimates of 20-22 million previously.

In summary, increased supplies of wheat from the southern hemisphere is seen competing with Black Sea and EU wheat into limited buying demand.

As we go forward the EU/UK will still have a large exportable surplus which is likely to see ending stocks and carry out much higher and as such prices at these current levels should be seen as a selling opportunity to the grower.

The current weakness in the £ vs the US dollar and Euro has given the UK market a couple of £’s lift this week – how long this lasts is anyone’s guess but we all know currency movements can be volatile both ways and as pointed out above the fundamentals of the market remain bearish.

MALTING BARLEY

The UK Spring barley rejection rate is not getting any better but for every failure we still have two or three sellers waiting to fill the gap.

We still forecast the 2009 EU spring area to decline but it is a different story here in the UK where the recent wet weather has stopped autumn plantings in their tracks.

With malting premiums for next year looking very attractive we are bound to see another rise in the UK spring barley area.

We would advise that growers book at least some of their intended area at these levels. Please contact your local farm trader for buyback details.

SEED

The trade is reporting strong spring seed sales due to growers intentions of drilling more spring crops, coupled with the fact that there is less farmers own saved seed available due to the germination and quality issues.

Seed crop losses in Ireland and Scotland are also increasing demand with buyers from both countries booking up large tonnages from English wholesalers.

If you look at current gross margins if you have moisture retentive soil you should be planting Red wheat. If you have malting land then you should look no further than Tipple or Quench spring malting barley.

Our advice is to book your spring seed requirements sooner than later.

RED WHEAT

The launch of Rank Hovis’s Red Wheat growing contract has gone very well. We have already contracted many thousand tonnes of wheat from North Yorkshire to the South coast. These are some key points to consider for those of you who are thinking of growing some:

Red Wheat yields the same here as in Canada.

Red Wheat has more daylight growing hours here than in Canada.

Red Wheat has been grown commercially in the UK for 6 years from the South of England to Scotland.

We recommend that Red Wheat is grown on moisture retentive soils.

After extensive trials the new variety AC Barrie has been found to be the Red Wheat most suited to the UK.

For more information please click on this link Red Wheat