FEED WHEAT

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USDA projected 2009/2010 US wheat closing stocks over 1 billion bushels, the highest level since 1987/1988.

USDA forecasted 2009/2010 US corn closing stocks at 1.8 billion bushels. World stock will be higher at 140mmt.

Russia’s winter grain area is close to last year’s; with reports that 8-10% of the area may be lost due to frost & ice cover.

SovEcon stated that Russia’s 2009/2010 wheat ending stocks will be up year-on-year at 11.6-12.6mmt.

APK - Inform calculated the Ukrainian 2010 grain crop lower at 45.18mmt, wheat also slightly lower at 19.76mmt.

Agrimarket Info reported Ukrainian winter grain losses 0.3% (25,300 hectares), with just over 10% of the crop described at ‘unsatisfactory’.

Canadian all-wheat area for 2010 is lower at 24 million acres, as growers switch to more profitable canola.

French farm ministry raised its projected 2009/2010 soft wheat closing stocks to 4mmt.

Egypt’s GASC purchased 120,000t of wheat for May shipment (60,000t of French and 60,000t of Russian).

The USDA report released yesterday did nothing to change market sentiment as projected increases in stocks for corn and wheat, both in the US and on the World balance sheets will keep prices under pressure. However, these increases were not a great surprise given the current apparent lack of demand. Analysts may say that the USDA could have reduced wheat production in Australia, but the true fact is that the World is awash with coarse grains, especially wheat.

Over the next few weeks the market focus will switch to US spring plantings and assessment of how winter grain crops have survived the winter as crops start to break dormancy. At present, weather prospects remain favourable, but traders are still wary of wet field conditions in the US mid-west, and melting snow could delay plantings.

Although the grain balance sheets look top-heavy the US still needs a record corn crop in 2010 given the predicted increase in use from the ethanol industry. Therefore any delays in planting or potential weather scares will encourage further fund buying interest, and this may drag wheat along for the ride.

RAPESEED

The oilseed futures markets have seen another lack lustre week and even yesterday’s USDA report failed to generate any spark.

The USDA's March supply and demand report was considered neutral to negative for soybeans. However the market really had more of a consolatory feel to it as the market took some short term support from China’s continuing use of US beans due to logistical issues in Brazil.

The USDA lowered 2009/10 soybean ending stocks to 5.168mln t from 5.712mln t in February. The expectation was for a slightly higher total near 5.304mln t. The ending stocks projection is now down by 1.49mln t from the USDA's December report. Exports were revised higher by 540kt and the crush was raised by 270k tonnes

The USDA pegged Brazil production at 67 million tonnes compared with 66 million tonnes last month. Argentina was left unchanged at 53 mlnt. World soybean ending stocks for 2009/10 were raised to 60.67 million tonnes from 59.73 mlnt in February.

The Matif rapeseed futures market has shown some small gains on the week, but the UK market was again dominated by currency swings. The £€ has eased lower this week as the currency market digested comments from a major credit rating agency that the UK’s AAA rating is under pressure and this helped UK farm gate prices as the fall in the value of sterling continues to be the main factor that is supporting current values, and without this recent decline prices would be £10 lower than today.

BEANS

Old crop beans are suffering from the weaker wheat market, with no discernable buying interest from continental buyers.

Human Consumption beans are also subject to a lack of buying interest with Egypt wanting to clear all stock in the country before re-buying, bearing in mind local crops will be available from May and with Ramadan this year in August we do not see revitalised interest until April /May at the earliest.

First indications on French Bean plantings show an increase of approx 20%, giving the French S&D a very heavy look. They are looking to sell HC types at comparative values to UK, plus for the first time they are trying to capture historic UK feed homes to Spain and Italy.

FERTILISER

The takeover battle at Terra hot’s up as Directors evaluate the counter-offer from CF Industries who are trying to edge out Yara`s earlier offer.

Ammonium nitrate prices appear to have stabilised but remain high when compared to Urea.

Granular Urea prices look very attractive and should be considered as an option today as internationally prices are showing signs of recovering as US forward levels start to pick up.

Gleadell have granular and prilled Urea available in bulk and bags for immediate and April deliveries.

Pre-season purchasing from Latin America is keeping phosphate prices firm and new potash prices have yet to be tested as weather conditions have tempered consumption in some areas.

Sulphur products in the UK are extremely tight with blenders now sold out of product until April.

SEED

Spring
The spring season has showed some renewed interest this week – with the dry weather and increased temperatures growers are looking to cover spring cropping.
Spring Wheat seed is now almost sold out – with limited availability of some varieties.
Spring Barley seed is available, with most varieties available from prompt delivery.
Oilseeds have seen an increase in sales – with spring OSR seed Ability and linseed variety Abacus being packed currently for quick availability for when the soil temperature improves.

Autumn
Interest has been shown with farmers taking early cover on OSR varieties, and the new soft wheat variety Invicta

• Conventional OSR
Sesame is now all but sold out across all areas, and we now have DK Cabernet to offer in the conventional slot.
DK Cabernet is the highest yielding fully recommended variety on the HGCA list (111% gross output – E&W).

• Hybrid OSR
We have deferred payment terms for early orders of the hybrid varieties – Palace, Compass and Excalibur.
Palace is a new variety from LSPB – with 107% gross output in E&W region and excellent agronomic package including light leaf spot resistance.
Compass is a candidate variety listed by DSV – with an impressive 109% gross output and good oil content, along with outstanding autumn and spring vigour.
Excalibur will be a favoured hybrid variety once again this year – and with 106% gross output as well as being tried and tested by UK growers will see further popularity this year.

• Winter Wheat.
Invicta is a new high yielding group 3 soft wheat variety, the highest in its sector and only 3% below Oakley in a first wheat situation; large order discount and deferred payment terms are still available for early orders.

Contact your Gleadell Farm Trader for full details.